Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Amorphous silicon thin-film solar cells increased investment

As TFT-LCD (thin film transistor liquid crystal display) technology has been very mature, large area amorphous silicon film uniformity of the silicon technology can be transplanted to the production of thin film batteries. The current practice is usually used in the TFT-LCD technology for the production of thin film transistor devices, to produce amorphous silicon thin-film solar cells. U.S., Europe and Japan's semiconductor equipment suppliers, are trying to enter this market. In addition to these providers in the market competition, one after another through mergers and reorganizations, personnel and other means to increase the recruitment of products, processes, equipment research and development, and strive to long-term competition in the market for a sustained competitive advantage.

In business investment, many of crystalline silicon cells in the manufacturers continue to enlarge and strengthen the existing products, but also look to silicon cells, their intention to improve and enrich the product line. Interestingly, more than the original solar industry enterprises, investment in the entire solar thermal encouragement, the silicon thin film solar cells have chosen as their entry point into the industry, in a bid to in this new market plan In the place. These new entrants to the solar industry a new face, but also exacerbated the industry's competitiveness and risk. According to incomplete statistics, only in China have at least nine new investment projects silicon thin film battery is being implemented, the design of the total annual production capacity of around 900 MW, while potential investors and ongoing projects are more pre-planned.

Raw material costs should be most concerned about

It seems that despite the current silicon thin film battery profit great, but now the face of this rapidly changing market customers and raw material supply chain environment, any hope that the people involved in this area should be well aware of the risks faced by the where, Effectively avoid and guard against those risks.

Use of internationally renowned simulation software company's software tools, and to collect data such as the production cost basis, we built an amorphous silicon thin film solar cell production line simulation model. Using this model the cost analysis, we can not only be the cost of flat products and its composition, but also in accordance with international practice the principle of the expenditure will be assessed to the various processing, thus clearly see that the expenditure of the overall cost of And the proportion of the causes, to accurately assess their risk level for the investment decision-making and production operations for reference.

Internal rate of return is a measure of investment projects of the important economic indicator. At the present market conditions analysis, one with an annual output of 40 MW-60MW silicon thin film battery production line project's internal rate of return far greater than 12% of the industry benchmark yield. Nevertheless, market and technical aspects of the uncertainty of the investment will bring huge risks. Therefore, we also focus on the simulation model to project internal rate of return for a sensitivity analysis. The results shown in Figure 2, the product of the sales price is the most sensitive factors. In practice, this was not surprising, the production of any of the benefits are directly determined by the sales revenues and cost of the product. The terms of solar cells, photoelectric conversion efficiency of the products also decided to battery components sales price of important factors. If the assumption that every watt of solar cells at the same, when the photoelectric conversion efficiency from 6 percent to 6.5 percent, a component of the sales price increased by 8 percent, while its production cost is almost the same, this will obviously The proceeds of the project have a great impact.

As at different times, different locations of their different objective conditions, the map of the specific data is not immutable, in some special conditions may even need to do more of the adjustment, but by the above analysis reveals some of the issues, it should be Is a common reference value.

Faced with investment still cool thinking

Investment boom in solar cells, silicon cells seem to have become hot spots in the hot spots. Experts have pointed out that thin film solar cell in the next five years -10 years will be about 50 percent of the annual average growth rate of growth to 2030 will account for the overall share of the solar cell more than 30 percent.

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